Oddschecker

Oddswatch – Movers and Shakers in the Eurovision 2014 Odds Market

We think the amount of money changing hands to bet on certain acts can tell you a lot about who’s likely to win Eurovision. That’s why we let you use Bookies’ Opinion as one of the options to pick who gets your 12 points and why Bookies odds (the actual numbers) get used as a tie-breaker. Because of this, we’ve been keeping a close eye on just how much those numbers are changing here. So with under a week to go until the big night, what have we learnt about who’s likely to win, and who’s unlikely to make it out the semis this year?

(A quick explainer – odds are stylised in the format X-1 with X being the amount of pounds you get back for each pound you put on. So a winner at 10-1 means you will get £10 of winnings from a £1 bet or £50 from a £5 bet. ‘Shortening’ of odds means the A number is getting smaller – so you will get less money if they win. ‘Lengthening’ of odds is the opposite, the A number is getting higher so you will now get more money if they win!)

The Favourites

Bookies' favourite Aram Mp3 is already basking in the limelight. Credits: Arnos Martirosyan ARAM Mp3
Bookies’ favourite Aram Mp3 is already basking in the limelight.
Credits: Arnos Martirosyan, ARAM Mp3

Armenia has been the favourite pretty much since betting opened with odds generally under 2-1, showing that the bookies seem to be fairly confident that Aram MP3 will take home the prize. Saying that however, second favourite Sweden has rapidly been gaining territory, with Sanna Nielsen’s odds dropping from around 7-1 a month ago to under 3-1 now.

Other favourites moving up the table this year include Denmark (currently 8-1), Ukraine (14-1) and Hungary (16-1), whereas Norway have moved in the opposite direction standing at around 15-1 now after placing third with 8-1 a month ago.

The Dark Horses

The bookies like them, but will the voters? Romania's Paula Seling and OVI Credits: Radu Bucura
The bookies like them, but will the voters? Romania’s Paula Seling and OVI
Credits: Radu Bucura

As things get tighter at the top of the table, the other acts have started to space out a bit. While we originally considered anyone with odds between 10-1 and 20-1 a Dark Horse, we’ve had to dramatically expand that category up to 50-1 as odds for many acts get longer. Noticeable entries in this category include Austria’s bearded lady Conchita Wurst (currently around 23-1), the ever-popular Romania (33-1) and former UK X-Factor contestant Ruth Lorenzo (50-1) representing Spain.

Middle-of-the-Road

Ireland - not so popular with the UK betters this year. Credits: Philip McMillan / RTE
Ireland – not so popular with the UK betters this year.
Credits: Philip McMillan / RTE

While this group should be certain to qualify from the semis, the chances of them winning are starting to look fairly slim. What’s interesting is that this group includes social media buzz makers Poland (95-1), and our neighbours Ireland (who normally do favourably with the UK betters, 80-1) suggesting these two songs might not do as well as was hoped a month ago. Other Middlers include Big 6 members Germany (90-1) and Italy (65-1) and one of the biggest movers The Netherlands (90-1 now, shortened from 150-1 a month ago).

Unlikely

Do the odds mean Switzerland are going to do better than first thought? Credits: SRF/Merly Knörle
Do the shortening odds mean Switzerland are going to do better than first thought?
Credits: SRF/Merly Knörle

This group is the one that has seen the most change, gaining from those previously deemed Middle-of-the-Road and losing to the No-Hoper group. While a couple of songs have moved in the other direction (Malta from Unlikely to Middle, Switzerland from No-Hoper to Unlikely) this group is something of a danger zone – once entered there’s not much chance of seeing your odds dip below 100-1, meaning these acts are only getting further from the prize. Currently just three countries are still stuck in this limbo; France (100-1), Montenegro (125-1) and Switzerland (150-1).

No-Hopers

The bookies seem to think Aarzemnieki probably can't bake their cake and eat it too. Credits: Linda Rutule, Aarzemnieki
The bookies seem to think Aarzemnieki can’t bake their cake and eat it too.
Credits: Linda Rutule, Aarzemnieki

This year’s group of No-Hopers has been slowly growing as people bet more money on the favourites and less on some of the other acts. And while odds of 100-1 or more were enough to help you join this club a month ago, it now takes 200+ to be a fully-fledged member. Among the 11 acts the bookmakers currently think don’t stand a chance are facial hair fans Iceland (225-1), Jade’s previous favourite Lithuania (250-1), veteran San Marino eurovisionr Valentina Monetta (280-1) and our Latvian friends with a cake to bake, Aarzemnieki (200-1).

What about the UK?

Will Molly be win number 6 for the Uk? Credits: Nicky Johnston
Will Molly be win number 6 for the UK?
Credits: Nicky Johnston

The odds for Molly’s chances in the final have gradually been getting shorter and last time we checked she was in fourth place with odds of around 14-1. However, its worth taking this with a pinch of salt as our source mainly compares UK betting sites and these are likely to be full of overly optimistic UK betters taking a punt on their home country, with the book-makers shortening odds accordingly (just in case she does win and they have to pay out to all those people!). On the other hand we looked at how Children of the Universe is doing on a couple of foreign betting sites too and it looks like she’s hovering around 6th place with similar odds. Go Molly!

Still don’t know who to put your money on? Try working out your favourite act here! And don’t forget to tell us who gets your 12 points in the comments!

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